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Wednesday, 08 August 2007

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Trading the Forex market has become very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only about 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.

Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators. But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.

There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.

Trading Opportunities : The sheer number of currencies traded serves to ensure a rather extreme level of volatility on a day-to-day basis. There will always be currencies that are moving rapidly up or down, offering opportunities for profit (and commensurate risk) to astute traders. Yet, like the equity markets, Forex offers plenty of instruments to mitigate risk and allows the individual to profit in both rising and falling markets. Forex also allows highly leveraged trading with low margin requirements relative to its equity counterparts. Perhaps best of all, Forex charges zero dealing commissions! Many of the instruments utilized in Forex - such as forwards and futures, options, spread betting, contracts for difference and the spot market - will appear similar to those used in the equity markets. Since the instruments on the Forex often maintain minimum trade sizes in terms of the base currencies (the spot market, for example, requires a minimum trade size of 100,000 units of the base currency), the use of margin is absolutely essential for the person trading these instruments.

A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range. Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.

The usual contract size for ordinary FX traders is USD $100,000. This is one lot, which is the minimum size normally traded. You put up a margin, usually $1000-$2000 depending on your broker. Some FX brokers now offer mini-contracts. These are 1/10 the size of regular FX contracts, and represent $10,000. The margin is proportionately smaller. The cost of trading mini-contracts is higher, as there is more work for the broker to do in fitting the mini-contracts into the market. However mini-contracts are a great opportunity to start trading without having to risk a lot of money, and can help new traders become familiar with the market before moving on to the full size contracts.

Currency prices are affected by a variety of economic and political conditions, most importantly interest rates, inflation and political stability. Moreover, governments sometimes participate in the Forex market to influence the value of their currencies, either by flooding the market with their domestic currency in an attempt to lower the price, or conversely buying in order to raise the price. This is known as Central Bank intervention. Any of these factors, as well as large market orders, can cause high volatility in currency prices. However, the size and volume of the Forex market makes it impossible for any one entity to "drive" the market for any length of time.
Currency traders make decisions using both technical factors and economic fundamentals. Technical traders use charts, trend lines, support and resistance levels, and numerous patterns and mathematical analyses to identify trading opportunities, whereas fundamentalists predict price movements by interpreting a wide variety of economic information, including news, government-issued indicators and reports, and even rumor. The most dramatic price movements however, occur when unexpected events happen. The event can range from a Central Bank raising domestic interest rates to the outcome of a political election or even an act of war. Nonetheless, more often it is the expectation of an event that drives the market rather than the event itself.
Intraday positions are all positions opened anytime during the 24 hour period AFTER the close normal trading hours at 4:30pm EST. Overnight positions are positions that are still on at the end of normal trading hours (4:30pm EST), which are automatically rolled at competitive rates (based on the currencies interest rate differentials) to the next day’s price.

Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.

This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?

I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.

Supply and demand are not what makes prices move or fail to move most of the time. The sooner you realize that fact, the better off you will be. Markets are engineered, manipulated ¾ you need to know that.
But there’s more to a chart than merely price patterns. Reflected in the chart are the emotional reactions of human beings. Reactions to rumors and news; to national and world events; to government reports - these, too, are on the charts.
You might say that price movement, or the lack thereof, is the net effect of all the perceptions of all the traders who are participating in the market for a particular futures.
There is something else on the charts, something that too few take into account. That something is the manipulations from and by the insiders, the market movers, and by commercials holding large inventories of the underlying you are attempting to trade.
In achieving perfection as a trader, you must train yourself to look for evidence of any and all of these things as you study your charts. It is the cumulative action of all perceptions which causes patterns to form on a price chart.
You must learn to look for the truths in the markets. There are certain truths which are self-evident; they are always true. For instance, take the phenomenon of a breakout. When prices break out, no one can change the fact that they did break out. It is a fact and it is true. The breakout may turn out to be a "false" breakout, but nevertheless it is a breakout. As part of achieving perfection in your trade selection skills, you have to learn to tell which breakouts are most likely true breakouts, and which ones are most likely false. How can you know? By the price patterns on the chart.
And what about trend? Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to master how to trade a trend. A trend is a trend, is a trend. It is a trend until the end, and part of your job is to know when a market is not trending.
The trend is the trend while it lasts. While a market is trending it is telling the truth. The trend can change, but the truth is the truth. If prices are rising, the trend is up. If prices are falling, the trend is down. The truth can be found in the trend. It is an immutable fact. You are to learn to make my money by trading with the trend. You are to learn what constitutes a trend. forex trading You have to learn to spot trends early so that you can make the most out of the market while it is trending. Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to learn to recognize when a trend will most likely begin, and just as important, to learn to be even more adept at deciphering when a trend is ending.
In achieving perfection, you must learn to recognize "your" trade(s), and to take only "your" trades. Trade the formations and patterns that you can easily recognize and identify.
You must learn to trade using tips and tricks that you are shown and to accumulate and keep a collection of techniques that result in the selection of high probability trades.
How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice, yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and